Pennsylvania COVID-19 Early Warning Monitoring Dashboard Update for Oct. 16 – Oct. 22
October 26, 2020
Governor Tom Wolf and Secretary of Health Dr. Rachel Levine today released a weekly status update detailing the state’s mitigation efforts based on the COVID-19 Early Warning Monitoring System Dashboard. Updates are released each Monday.
The update includes the following:
- Level of community transmission as a basis for the recommendations for Pre-K to 12 schools to determine instructional models.
- Data on cases among 5-18-year-olds.
- Cases that reported visiting a business among potential locations where exposures may have occurred.
- Updated travel recommendations.
The dashboard is designed to provide early warning signs of factors that affect the state’s mitigation efforts. The data available on the early warning monitoring dashboard includes week-over-week case differences, incidence rates, test percent-positivity, and rates of hospitalizations, ventilations and emergency room visits tied to COVID-19. This week’s update compares the period of October 16 – October 22 to the previous seven days, October 9 – October 15.
“Our percent positivity and incidence rate for the Commonwealth increased significantly in the midst of our fall resurgence,” Gov. Wolf said. “We cannot emphasize enough the importance of Pennsylvanians being united in taking actions to protect ourselves and others, such as wearing a mask, practicing social distancing, washing our hands and avoiding gatherings. It is only by working together that Pennsylvanians can prevent the spread of the virus.”
As of Thursday, October 22, the state has seen a seven-day case increase of 10,127 cases; the previous seven-day increase was 8,849 cases, indicating a 1,278-case increase over the previous week’s total.
The statewide percent-positivity went up to 5.0% from 4.2% last week. Counties with concerning percent-positivity include Huntingdon (12.0%), Bradford (11.2%), Lawrence (9.0%), Lebanon (8.7%), Westmoreland (8.4%), Perry (8.2%), Bedford (7.6%), Luzerne (7.5%), Schuylkill (7.5%), Tioga (7.2%), York (7.2%), Indiana (7.0%), Lackawanna (7.0%), Venango (7.0%), Mifflin (6.8%), Armstrong (6.7%), Berks (6.6%), Cumberland (6.6%), Montour (6.3%), Philadelphia (6.1%), Franklin (6.0%), Elk (5.9%), Washington (5.9%), Mercer (5.6%), Dauphin (5.5%), Susquehanna (5.5%), Blair (5.3%), Clinton (5.3%), Clarion (5.1%), Northumberland (5.1%). Each of these counties and the state bears watching as we continue to monitor all available data.
As of Friday’s data, Berks, Bradford, Centre, Elk, Huntingdon, Lackawanna, Lawrence, Lebanon, Luzerne, Mifflin, Montour, Northumberland, Philadelphia, Schuylkill, and Westmoreland counties were in the substantial level of community transmission. The departments of Education and Health will speak with school district representatives in these counties to discuss the implications of this level of transmission.
For the week ending October 22, nine counties were in the low level of transmission, 43 counties in the moderate level, with 15 with substantial transmission:
Low – Cameron, Forest, Fulton, Jefferson, Pike, Potter, Sullivan, Warren, Wayne
Moderate – Adams, Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Bedford, Blair, Bucks, Butler, Cambria, Carbon, Chester, Clarion, Clearfield, Clinton, Columbia, Crawford, Cumberland, Dauphin, Delaware, Erie, Fayette, Franklin, Greene, Indiana, Juniata, Lancaster, Lehigh, Lycoming, McKean, Mercer, Monroe, Montgomery, Northampton, Perry, Snyder, Somerset, Susquehanna, Tioga, Union, Venango, Washington, Wyoming, York
Substantial – Berks, Bradford, Centre, Elk, Huntingdon, Lackawanna, Lawrence, Lebanon, Luzerne, Mifflin, Montour, Northumberland, Philadelphia, Schuylkill, Westmoreland
Cases Among 5-18-Year-Olds
The Department of Health is providing weekly data on the number of statewide cases of COVID-19 among 5 to 18-year-olds.
Throughout the pandemic, there have been 13,345 total cases of COVID-19 among 5 to 18-year-olds. Of that total, 1,183 occurred between October 16 – October 22. For the week of October 9 – October 15, there were 991 cases of COVID-19 among 5 to 18-year-olds.
The Department of Health is providing weekly data on the number of individuals who responded to case investigators that they spent time at business establishments (restaurants, bars, gym/fitness centers, salon/barbershops) and at mass gatherings 14 days prior to the onset of COVID-19 symptoms.
Of the 9,754 confirmed cases reported between October 11 and October 17, 29 percent (2,841) provided an answer to the question as to whether they spent time at a business establishment.
Of those who did provide an answer, 16.3 percent, or 464, answered yes, they visited a business establishment 14 days prior to onset of symptoms:
55 percent (256) of those who said yes reported going to a restaurant;
26 percent (122) of those who said yes reported going to some other business establishment;
13 percent (61) of those who said yes reported going to a bar;
11 percent (53) of those who said yes reported going to a gym/fitness center; and
7.5 percent (35) of those who said yes reported going to a salon/barbershop.
Of the 9,754 confirmed cases, 29 percent (2,856) answered the question as to whether they attended a mass gathering or other large event. Of the 29 percent, 16.9 percent (482) answered yes to whether they attended a mass gathering or other large event 14 days prior to onset of symptoms.
Compared to data reported on October 19, this week’s data saw an increase in people going to a restaurant (55 percent vs. 50 percent last week). At 26 percent, numbers remained the same for people going to some other business. Numbers went down for this week’s data for people who reported going to a gym/fitness center (11 percent vs. 13 percent last week), going to a bar (13 percent vs. 14 percent last week) and down slightly for going to a salon or barbershop (7.5 percent vs. 8 percent last week). The number of those who attended a mass gathering or other large event increased to 17 percent from 16 percent last week.
The numbers above highlight business settings and mass gatherings as possible sites for transmission. With less than half of those asked about what types of businesses they visited or if they attended a mass gathering responding to the question, the department is reminding Pennsylvanians that it is essential that people answer the phone when case investigators call and to provide full and complete information to these clinical professionals.
Also today, the Department of Health updated its travel recommendations, originally announced on July 2, with no states added or removed from the list of states recommended for domestic travelers returning from to quarantine for 14 days upon return to Pennsylvania.
It is important that people understand that this recommendation is in place to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in Pennsylvania. A concerning number of recent cases have been linked to travel, and if people are going to travel, we need them to take steps to protect themselves, their loved ones and their community, and that involves quarantining upon return to Pennsylvania.
Gov. Wolf continues to prioritize the health and safety of all Pennsylvanians through the COVID-19 pandemic. Pennsylvanians should continue to take actions to prevent the spread of COVID-19, regardless of in what county they live. This includes wearing a mask or face covering anytime they are in public. COVID-19 has been shown to spread easily in the air and contagious carriers can be asymptomatic.